Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#156
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.6#316
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#231
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#113
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 16.0% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 66.5% 81.0% 55.8%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 78.0% 61.8%
Conference Champion 13.4% 18.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.0% 4.7%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round11.3% 15.6% 8.2%
Second Round1.6% 2.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 170   @ Air Force L 65-67 42%    
  Nov 12, 2019 277   Prairie View W 75-65 83%    
  Nov 15, 2019 15   @ Baylor L 57-75 5%    
  Nov 18, 2019 303   Jackson St. W 68-56 85%    
  Nov 20, 2019 146   @ UNLV L 66-70 37%    
  Nov 25, 2019 286   Abilene Christian W 68-58 82%    
  Nov 30, 2019 321   Hartford W 73-60 88%    
  Dec 04, 2019 32   @ Houston L 57-72 10%    
  Dec 07, 2019 121   Texas San Antonio W 73-72 51%    
  Dec 19, 2019 122   @ Georgia Southern L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 21, 2019 162   @ Georgia St. L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 02, 2020 220   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 04, 2020 271   @ Arkansas St. W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 06, 2020 297   Troy W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 09, 2020 172   Coastal Carolina W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 212   Appalachian St. W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 16, 2020 223   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 18, 2020 202   @ Louisiana L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 135   Texas Arlington W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 30, 2020 223   Louisiana Monroe W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 01, 2020 202   Louisiana W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 06, 2020 172   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 08, 2020 212   @ Appalachian St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 13, 2020 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 15, 2020 271   Arkansas St. W 73-63 78%    
  Feb 20, 2020 122   Georgia Southern W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 162   Georgia St. W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 29, 2020 135   @ Texas Arlington L 63-67 36%    
  Mar 03, 2020 138   @ South Alabama L 65-69 38%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.6 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.6 3.0 0.7 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.1 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.5 10.3 8.4 7.2 5.4 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.9% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 97.4% 2.1    1.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 85.2% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 61.7% 3.3    2.0 1.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.3% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.4% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 8.8 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 73.1% 62.9% 10.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.4%
19-1 0.8% 62.9% 52.3% 10.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 22.2%
18-2 2.1% 50.6% 46.0% 4.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 8.5%
17-3 3.6% 43.3% 41.6% 1.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.0 2.9%
16-4 5.4% 33.4% 33.1% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 3.6 0.4%
15-5 7.2% 28.1% 28.1% 13.6 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.2
14-6 8.4% 20.4% 20.4% 13.9 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 6.7
13-7 10.3% 13.1% 13.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 9.0
12-8 10.5% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.9
11-9 10.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.1
10-10 9.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.3
9-11 8.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
8-12 7.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 7.0
7-13 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.6
6-14 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 2.7% 2.7
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.5% 11.2% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.5 3.1 1.8 0.4 88.5 0.3%